Keywords Holidays

Early settlers hoped for signs of an early spring so they could begin planting and shorten the time to harvest, especially with winter provisions dwindling. What settlers did not realize was that the groundhog sleeps later than the European hedgehog and is less likely to stir even on warm winter days. When February 2 arrives, the worst of winter's weather is usually over in western Europe, but Canadian winters are generally longer, with much more cold and snow yet to come. In early February, the openings to groundhog burrows are usually buried under deep layers of snow and ice.

There is some truth to the shadow aspect of the legend. Sunny days in winter are generally associated with colder, drier arctic air and cloudy days with milder, moist maritime air. Given the tendency for weather conditions to persist for several days before changing, the weather on any February 2 may continue for a few days, but not necessarily any longer. Nonetheless, Wiarton Willie of Wiarton, Ont, near Georgian Bay is unlikely to appear above ground on his own until early to mid-March, 6-8 weeks after February 2. (The "role" of Wiarton Willie has been played since 1956 by a succession of albino groundhogs reared in Wiarton, Ont. The most recent Willie died on 31 Jan 1999 at the age of 23 and has been replaced by a "Willie Jr.") Brandon Bob of Manitoba sleeps till late March or early April.

Groundhog
(Corel Professional Photos).

Meteorological Records
Groundhog Day organizers maintain that the rodents' forecasts are accurate 75-90% of the time. However, meteorological records prove that the groundhogs' success rate is quite low. A study of weather data over the past 30-40 years for 13 cities across Canada reveals there was an equal number of cloudy and sunny days on February 2. During that period, the groundhogs' predictions were correct only 37% of the time; ie, winters continued cold for several weeks following the appearance of sharp shadows on February 2, or were much milder than usual when that day was too cloudy for a shadow to be seen. However, for nearly two-thirds of the years the groundhogs' forecasts turned out to be wrong: either they were contrary to what they should have been, or winter dragged on its normal duration. Given that in this case 33% accuracy can occur by chance, a score of 37% is not significant.

The second column in the table represents the chance of a groundhog seeing its shadow (percent), with the third column representing the times a groundhog forecasts correctly (percent).

St John's 53 41

Charlottetown 50 41

Halifax 50 42

Fredericton 48 34

Montréal 52 36

Toronto 54 29

Ottawa 48 42

Winnipeg 78 30

Regina 63 38

Edmonton 60 26

Vancouver 23 35

Whitehorse 43 42

Yellowknife 50 50

* Correct by accident or chance 33% of the time

Author DAVID PHILLIPS

Links to Other Sites
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